Elizabeth Newlin - Arizona Real Estate Agent

I’ve been meaning to post pictures of some of my more recent knitting projects. I think the cold snap out here has kicked my hobby into high gear. Too bad my desire for woolen creations will be gone with the chill in about two weeks. But until then, Jason has a new hat:

This was his Christmas present that didn’t get finished until slightly post-Christmas. And hey, it’s reversible:

I also tried my hand at cables and came up with this hat for myself:

I love it, but I think I’m going to also do one in a more solid color so the cables stand out better.

Lastly, I went to a baby shower this weekend and attempted my first ’sock’ pattern to take as a gift. Of course it was way more complicated and time consuming than I thought tiny baby sockies could possibly be, so I only have one done:

It will also have to be delivered slightly late (luckily the babe is still tucked away in the womb so he is not yet missing it.)

In other news, we have begun our kitchen remodel. A couple of weeks ago our horrid old dishwasher died and we were forced to buy a replacement. Since we were buying a dishwasher, we figured we might as well bite the bullet and replace the oven/range as well (Spencer’s gave us a discount). Sadly, though we love our new appliances, they have really shined a spotlight on the shoddiness of the rest of the kitchen, thereby prompting us to head over to IKEA and purchase our new cabinets. We haven’t begun ripping out our installing the new cabinets yet, but Jason did take a minute this weekend to put together our new freestanding pantry so that we could get all of the crud off the counters that’s been living there for lack of enough cabinet space. Check it out:

SO SO much extra space:

Oh my goodness I am going to love my new kitchen so much I’ll never want to move!

I attended a Century 21 Seminar this morning. It was up at the Desert Ridge Marriott (which is huge and gorgeous, by the way) and was intended to be the kick-off event for an Arizona-based revitalization of the company that Century 21 is starting.

Basically it was about half hokey-stand-up-and-cheer-yay-Century-21 and half interesting-information-about-the-real-estate-market-today-and-how-to-tackle-it. There were a few bits of the latter that I thought were interesting enough to pass on to you, Dear Readers (or as I like to call you, Dad).

The main speaker, Jim Droz, spoke mainly on the premise that the real estate market right now is a changed place, which we all know. It’s not the hotbed of activity and price increases that it was two years ago, obviously. But he went on to say specifically, we are now in a downward trend that will likely continue for the next 3 to 4 years. His information shows that real estate continues in 4 to 5 year cycles; one for the up cycle, then one for the down cycle; and that our last up cycle peaked in August of 2005. He predicts that our next up cycle peak will happen in 7 to 11 years or the years 2014 to 2018.

Our market is currently overvalued (along with Washington state, Hawaii, Nevada and California out here in the west) and when house markets are overvalued or undervalued they will eventually ‘revert back to average,’ according to Droz.

I know all of this sounds like information one would need a time machine to have. How can you say for sure that home values will continue to decrease for three more years with total certainty? You can’t, obviously, say it with total certainty. However, his information makes logical sense. Here in Arizona we are currently paying more on average for our home loans in respect to our incomes than one can reasonably afford. That fact alone dictates that something has to change. Since it is unlikely that employers across the board will decide to offer 37% raises, it makes sense that home prices will cycle down-wards until we reach stasis again.

Another point Droz made about the market is that to most people, this information about the currently declining prices is irrelevant. The fact is that for most average consumers, if they’re looking to sell, they’re also looking to buy. Basically, they will just be exchanging equity. If they sell for lower this year than they could have two years ago, it doesn’t really matter because they will also be buying lower than they could have two years ago, and they’ll end up in approximately the same position.

If you are an investor not looking to 1031 exchange (again, just exchanging equity), the next three years should continue to be a good ‘buying’ period, and if you can wait six or seven to sell, you’ll be in the money.

Anyway, for me this firmed up some general ideas I had about the market we’re currently experiencing and gave me the verbiage to convey it to my clients. I hope it’s interesting to you, too!

I know what you’re thinking: Two posts in one day? What has happened to our lazy Arizona Realtor blogger? Has she gone crazy? This can’t be her! But don’t you worry, I haven’t picked up a new speed habit or even passed my duties on to another more reliable Realtor. Nope, there’s a good reason for my wordiness: I started the last post yesterday and wanted to get it out, and this post must be done today, thus, the illusive dual-post day. I’m sure I’ll be back to monthly blogging before you know it!

The reason this post has to be today, you ask? Today is my five year wedding anniversary. That’s right, I’m apparently just sane enough that I’ve convinced a man to marry and be with me for five full years. That or Jason is just crazy enough to have done it. Five years. FIVE YEARS. Boy that makes me feel old.

I’m sure someday I will look back on our wedding photos and think Seriously? That dress and that hair, seriously?? just like everyone else does, but not yet. I still love it all:

Wasn’t it a pretty setting? The only thing marring the scene were the planes that flew directly over head every 3 minutes or so.

My favorite part about this photo is that Jason looks just a tiny bit terrified. Like, Um, what did i just do?

So yes, I might be slightly nutty, but you tell me I don’t have fabulous taste. Tell me those dresses aren’t stunning (and yes, I’m taking credit for how hot my friends are too).

Jason, if you’re reading, Happy Anniversary. I wouldn’t have wanted to spend these last five years with anyone else. I love you!